🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.