🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."